Sunday, March 08, 2020

COVID-19: the grim figures when you do the math

Luckily, there are better minds than mine doing the math regarding the epidemiology of COVID-19. The video below has been popping up as suggested viewing on YouTube for a good chunk of today; I finally sat down to watch it, and to be honest, I kind of wish I hadn't done so. But take a deep breath, watch the video, and get ready for a good dose of math and stats, all of which point to the grim reality that is likely to hit the human population before the summertime. The most interesting (and alarming) part of the video is when the host quotes a string of tweets from engineer Liz Specht, who goes over the epidemiological math using conservative estimates but still arriving at some unnerving conclusions. You can also think of this video as detailed confirmation of Dr. John Campbell's sentiment that the US's response to the pandemic (because that's what it is, even if the UN/WHO won't name it thus) has been "lamentable." South Korea, once again, comes in for praise in this video. It may be better to be here than in the States at this point.






2 comments:

Charles said...

This does not bode well for my conference in the US in April.

Kevin Kim said...

Yeah, I'm wondering whether I'm even going to Qatar later this year.