I once joked in a comment over at Lost Nomad that North Korea's real nuke strategy would be: do nothing and then declare the "nuke test" a success. I wonder if that's exactly what has happened.
Some people are saying that a nuke test may have occurred in North Korea. I'll believe it when seismic readings taken by disinterested parties (i.e., someone not on the peninsula, but with the ability to record peninsular seismic activity) confirm this. Until then, I think it's bullshit. The burden of proof is on NK here; it's quite convenient for them to say that no radiation has made it to the surface. One way to make sure there's no radiation is to fake a nuke test.
I'll await more news, as everyone else will, but for the moment you can color me skeptical. If NK has indeed gone through with a nuke test, then as I said before, expect Japan to fast-track its remilitarization. And I doubt a successful nuke test will make much difference to US plans eventually to pull out of Korea.
What makes me curious is how nuke diplomacy is going to go, what with a Korean soon to be heading up the UN and therefore in control of the IAEA. Perhaps more interesting than that question is how Korean citizens will react to Ban Ki-moon's decisions, especially as they pertain to North Korea: proudly? angrily? I can imagine a whole Shakespearean gamut of emotions.
As my anus likes to say: "More later."
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