On December 19, South Korea decides its fate. I predict a liberal win in the upcoming presidential election. Although conservative Park Geun-hye, daughter of the (in)famous dictator Park Chung-hee, leads ever so slightly in the polls, I just don't see the Korean public continuing in a conservative vein. Too much anti-rightist animus has built up against current president-- and conservative-- Lee Myung-bak over the past five years, and this is reflective of the pendular nature of public opinion in Korea: anti-liberal sentiments are what had originally put Lee in office (cf. France's swing from leftist Chirac to rightist Sarkozy to leftist Hollande). Ms. Park has also not proven very competent a speaker during her three debates, a fact that drains any authoritativeness from her public image. The only reason the Korean public might vote for Park is that it's partial to a Thatcherite regime: it wants an Iron Lady. But how desirous is the Korean public, really, to have such a lady at its helm now? No: I suspect that liberal candidate Moon Jae-in is going to slalom to victory in less than 48 hours.
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This is a hard one to call, to tell you the truth. I think it will be close, but that's really all I can say.
ReplyDeleteI agree that there is a lot of anti-right animus. The question is whether it will be enough to overcome entrenched conservative elements.