Love him or hate him, The Korean, of Ask a Korean! fame, has been offering analysis of the Sewol disaster. Thanks to a post at ROK Drop, I clicked over to the original "Part II" article, which I encourage you to read in its entirety. TK breaks the tragedy down into four chronological phases and zeroes in on three principal actors, then does an overview of how these actors behaved during those time frames, noting the sad counterfactuals—the would-haves, could-haves, should-haves, and might-haves—along the way.
TK's body count assumes that the missing are already dead, which I agree is a pretty safe assumption at this point. There's simply no getting around the hypothermia/anoxia issue. As of this writing, the actual body count stands at 228 with 74 missing, assuming a total of 476 passengers and crew (which may not actually be the case, given the existence of at least two unverified passengers, now known to be dead).
If you're so inclined, start with The Korean's "Part I" article here.
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