three to watch

Tim Pool on how the Dems continue to shoot themselves in their collective foot:


Styx on how to understand polls:


Styx on the possible advent of a "red wave" in the House:


Trump is lucky to have avoided the fates of previous presidents, almost all of whom, in recent decades, have suffered the ignominy of having both houses of Congress flip against them, usually during the midterm elections of their first terms. By keeping the Senate GOP-dominated, Trump has shielded himself from the direst consequences of impeachment because a GOP-dominated Senate won't be inclined to take him down. (As things stand, it's looking worse and worse for the Bidens as more information about Ukraine comes to light—the Trump Effect strikes again.) If Trump manages to win back the House while also keeping the Senate in 2020, he'll have at least two years of bliss before the next midterms in 2022. Of course, there's a good chance the do-nothing GOP will dither and fritter away those two years doing fuck-all on the agenda; both parties are guilty of becoming focused and energetic only after they've lost power. We'll see. I think Styx is probably right, though, and 2020 is going to be a massacre, on state and local levels, for the Dems. As always: you can tell who's more in touch with reality by whose predictions tend to come true.