13 keys to the White House: how's Trump doing?

Wikipedia has an interesting article about the so-called Thirteen Keys to the White House, i.e., the thirteen major criteria that determine whether someone has what it takes to gain the Oval Office. The book The Keys to the White House was written by Allan Lichtman and was based on, of all things, earthquake research. I guess public sentiment is seismic in its own way.

Here are the thirteen keys, along with my comments in blue. If each statement represents 1 point if true, then for the person to win the presidency, s/he has to have at least 8 points, i.e., eight of the thirteen keys.

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
The 2018 midterms saw the GOP retaining the Senate but losing the House by a small margin. Pundits seem to think the GOP has a good chance of wresting the House out of Dem control this year while keeping the Senate. I'd say 0.5 points for that.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Absolutely true. 1 point.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Also true. 1 point.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
True again: no significant challenge. 1 point.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
We are in a recession, but most rational people blame China, not Trump. That said, plenty of stupid and irrational people do blame Trump for the current slump, despite the fact that it's the blue-state governors who, under federalism, have dropped the ball by fearfully clamping down on all business. 0.5 point at best.
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
This is more about one's attitude toward the future. If people have faith that Trump et al. can right the ship—which had been sailing strongly before the pandemic—then that optimism counts for a lot. If, however, people think we're all doomed (as many do), then that also counts for a lot. No better than 0.5 point for this one, I'm afraid.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
If you've been busy watching CNN, then you're completely unaware of the major changes Trump has instituted in multiple areas. 1 point.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
This isn't Trump's fault, but the rioting, plundering, and murder are all happening on Trump's watch, like it or not. 0 points, but the real blame goes to the mendacious news media, which have done everything they can to stoke racial division.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
This, too, is a matter of perception. Pro-Trump folks think there have been no scandals at all because everything has been, well, trumped up. Anti-Trump people see nothing but scandal after scandal, and they're left to wonder how and why Trump is still standing, like Luke Skywalker after being pummeled by the lasers of dozens of gorilla walkers. The country is divided on this score. 0.5 point.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Trump has started no new wars; he wants to withdraw us from Afghanistan, and I get the impression he wants to build down in places like South Korea. Trump just finalized a major peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (for which the left will give him zero credit, but fuck the left). 1 full goddamn point.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
See above. Oh, and we surgically hit General Soleimani. 1 point.
12. Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
The country is definitely divided on the charisma issue. Trump can energize a crowd, but the crowd already has to be with him. Meanwhile, haters gonna hate. 0.5 point.
13. Challenger (party) charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
So true. The insults are already flying regarding Creepy, Senile Joe and Slutty, Machiavellian Kamala. Joe Biden himself has very little voter enthusiasm buoying his campaign. The Dems are campaigning on "Orange Man Bad," not "We're Better Because." And swing voters are noticing. 1 point.

How many keys does that give Trump? 9.5. So he's in.

My left-liberal friends will dispute all this, of course, but as with most things requiring awareness of reality, they'll be wrong. At this point, the Dems can win only by cheating, and they're working hard on that score as I write this.