"The lockdowns are gonna get worse," Pool says. Yeah, things are worsening here in Korea, too. Seoul now has a W100,000 fine, same as can be found in Busan, for not wearing a mask in public. Plastic barriers at restaurants have been going up all over the place for the past few months. Most of these measures are little more than security theater—not particularly effective at stopping the spread of the virus—but the government engages in this nonsense both to provide a false sense of security and to continue to consolidate its power over the citizenry. Only a few months ago, I was praising Seoul's government for its surprisingly light touch, especially when compared to the draconian measures being implemented in blue-state America. Now, I see less and less to differentiate South Korea from those blue states. At this rate, we've got our own extreme lockdowns to look forward to here on the peninsula as people continue to conflate infection rates and death rates.
Let's talk math for a sec. When you calculate a death rate, you can talk in terms of "how a disease affects an entire population." In that case, according to the Johns Hopkins website (which, truth be told, isn't that reliable), 498 South Koreans have died over the past year of the pandemic. With an ROK population of 52 million, that puts the death rate at [498/52000000], or 0.000009577, or 0.0009577 percent, i.e., a nearly 100% survival rate. Others respond, "No, no—for a more accurate death-rate calculation, the denominator should be the number of people infected, not the total population." Fair enough. That's a much smaller number: the Johns Hopkins site puts South Korea's infection total at 29,654 as of this writing. So our new, supposedly more accurate death rate would now be [498/29,654], or 0.01679, or 1.679%, which equates to a survival rate of 98.321%. I have to say: I like those odds. I'd bet on those odds.
But if the ROK government does lock us down, trapping us in recirculating-air environments where we rebreathe potentially contaminated air, we'll probably see things get worse. Will the new vaccines help matters? One can only hope, although I'm hearing that the vaccines won't provide permanent immunity, necessitating booster shots and the like. As Styx points out, the virus might also mutate into less-harmful forms of itself (it's likely already mutated several times), and that could help end the pandemic faster. Of course, it's also possible for mutations to go the opposite way, producing virulent strains of SARS-CoV-2, and that wouldn't be pretty. The general consensus seems to be that we've got another year of hardship to go before things renormalize. Let's try not to strangle our economies and live as fearful, superstitious cave dwellers in the meantime.
If it wasn't so sad it would be funny to witness what appears to be worldwide governmental ineptitude. My observation from this vantage point in the Philippines is that it is more about control of people and power than about controlling the spread of COVID. As you point out, the death rate associated with catching the virus is so damn small that these measures are counterproductive. Like every pandemic in history, this one is going to run its inevitable course.
ReplyDeleteThe statistic I'd like to see is how many people have died BECAUSE of government policies related to COVID. I'd wager that the death rate is higher than what the virus has managed--people here are starving, suiciding, and foregoing essential medical treatment for other conditions. It's insane.