Wednesday, March 27, 2024

one data point does not a trend make, but...

These man-on-the-street interviews in urban areas seem to be revealing a surprising number of pro-Trump folks in the non-white community. Look at this one

Am I cherry-picking my data? Of course! Is there confirmation bias at work here? I admit it. Are there, conceivably, man-on-the-street interviews done by left-liberals that say exactly the opposite thing? Most likely, but YouTube's algorithm knows my preferences and thus never shows me those interviews. But here's the thing: I've seen a lot of videos like the one I just linked to, and the sheer number of such interviews is itself an important datum. 

I'm not a statistician; I haven't run the numbers, and I sure don't have my finger on the pulse of US minority communities. But I get a sense that, with Biden's presidential track record out there for all to see, people are making silent comparisons between Biden and Trump, and an increasing number of minorities are concluding Biden is not their man

I don't even know whether it's possible to get a trustworthy measurement of whether the tide is turning, but I sense that we're at least caught in a strong eddy.

ADDENDUM: Try this interview out for size, too.



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