I wrote my buddy Dominique the other day, and wanted to know his opinion regarding the European financial crisis:
Ici, on suit l'actualité économique en Europe, avec tout ce qui se passe entre Sarko et Merkel, aussi bien que la Grèce et l'Italie. Qu'en penses-tu? Il y a des rumeurs qu'il faudra peut-être ficher quelques-un des pays de l'Eurozone (notamment l'Italie et la Grèce) par la porte afin de sauver le reste; il y a d'autres gens qui disent qu'il faut un retour à l'ancienne monnaie-- les francs, les lires, les marks, etc. Tout comme aux Etats-Unis, où nous confrontons nos propres problèmes fiscaux, il s'agit d'une situation tellement compliquée qui n'aura probablement pas de solution nette et claire.
We're following current events in Europe here, with all that's happening between Sarko[zy] and Merkel, as well as Greece and Italy. What do you think? There are rumors that it may become necessary to chuck some Eurozone countries out the door (notably Italy and Greece) in order to save the rest; there are other people who say there needs to be a return to the old currencies-- francs, lira, marks, etc. As in the United States, where we're confronting our own fiscal problems, this is such a complicated situation, which probably won't have a neat and clear solution.
His reply yesterday:
...cela nous ne fait pas trop peur. Mon sentiment est assez partagé sur cette crise, car même si l’état français est endetté, les français ne le sont pas spécialement, les français sont les champions européens de l’épargne... Il y a 3 mois l’opinion des chefs d’entreprise était très positif et la crise économique, selon eux, était terminée. Maintenant c’est une crise financière... c’est un peu virtuel tout ça, car tout ce qui se passe en ce moment existait déjà il y a 2 ans, 1 an ou même 6 mois et ce que l’on pouvait accepter avant c’est devenu intolérable? j’ai du mal à le croire... les USA avait un AAA et l’ont perdu, cela change quoi? rien apparemment car les USA ont vu leurs taux d’intérêt baisser !!... La crise existe, les états sont endettés mais cela ne datent pas d’aujourd’hui, alors pourquoi cela serait il plus inacceptable aujourd’hui? Le problème européen est que nous sommes 27 à prendre une décision quand les USA parlent d’une seule vois alors c’est un peu le bordel en Europe, en plus avec quelques boulets comme la Grèce ou l’Italie (Berlusconi est OUT.. enfin) cela ne rassure personne, je crois que la crise vient aussi de là et pas uniquement de la situation financières des Etats, cela peut se calmer assez vite alors que les situations financières seront équivalentes à celles d’aujourd’hui, une fois que chaque état respectera ses engagements, en Italie par exemple depuis 1 an, Berlusconi avait annoncé des mesures pour réduire les dettes de l’Italie mais rien n’a été mis en oeuvre, aujourd’hui les marchés financiers sanctionnent cette attitude comme pour la Grèce et après c’est le risque de contagion sans qu’on sache vraiment pourquoi et la France est la prochaine sur la liste... alors que nous sommes moins endettés que l’Italie et que les réformes sont réellement en place (retraite...), il y a eu assez de bordel en France à cause de ça...
...it doesn't scare us too much. My feelings about this crisis are somewhat divided, because even if the French government is in debt, French people aren't especially so; the French are European champions at money-saving... Three months ago, entrepreneurs' opinions were positive and the economic crisis had, according to them, come to an end. Now it's a financial crisis... it's all a bit virtual, because everything happening right now already existed 2 years, 1 year, or even 6 months ago, and what we could accept beforehand has now become intolerable? I have trouble believing that... The USA had a AAA [rating] and lost it, and that changes what? Nothing, apparently, because the USA saw its interest rates go down!! The crisis exists, governments are in debt, but that situation didn't arise just yesterday, so why should it be unacceptable today? The European problem is that we're a group of 27 when making decisions while the USA speaks with a single voice, so it's a bit chaotic in Europe. What's more, with those dragging us down like Greece or Italy (Berlusconi is OUT... finally), this doesn't reassure anybody. I think the crisis has also arisen from that, and not uniquely from the financial situation in the States; it could calm down quickly once the financial situations are equivalent to those of today once each government starts living up to its commitments. In Italy, for example, for a year, Berlusconi had been announcing measures to reduce Italy's debts, but nothing was put in place. Today, financial markets are penalizing this attitude, as in Greece, and afterwards there's a risk of contagion without knowing exactly why, and France is next on the list even though we're less in debt than Italy and our reforms are really in place (retirement, etc.); there was enough of a mess in France because of that...
The latter sentences of Dominique's paragraph get a bit murky; I've translated as faithfully as I can, so it's up to you to follow the logic. I think what he's saying is that
1. Europe's financial crisis can't be explained simply as something precipitated by the US economy.
2. As long as the status quo remains stable and Eurozone governments keep their promises, things will calm down. That's my interpretation of "cela peut se calmer assez vite alors que les situations financières seront équivalentes à celles d’aujourd’hui, une fois que chaque état respectera ses engagements." I had trouble figuring out Dom's meaning here; is he diachronically comparing present conditions to future conditions? Is he synchronically comparing the respective economic statuses of the Eurozone countries? I opted to translate Dom as literally as possible for fear of altering his intended meaning.
3. Berlusconi had announced stabilizing measures as long as a year ago, but Italy never put those measures in place, whereas France did put its own measures in place. All the same, there's a perniciously infectious, epidemiological quality to what's happening, hence Dom's reference to "contagion" afflicting even those countries that are both less in debt and protected by internal reforms.
4. I'm guessing that the very last line is saying that the French had a huge internal fight over the reforms that were eventually put into place. (le bordel = mess)
My overall impression is that Dom feels that Europe can ride out this crisis, and that there won't be a need to return to old currencies.
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