you can't rely on anyone for data

Moody's Analytics currently says that, economically speaking, red states are recovering faster than blue states. While this fits what I consider a commonsense point of view (the freer the market, the fewer the regulations, the healthier the economy), I had to wonder how authoritative Moody's was as an analytical firm. There's a Wikipedia page devoted to Moody's, but it doesn't discuss things like bias or controversies, so I was forced to dig a little deeper by Googling "moody's analytics bias." That turned up an interesting Politico article from June 2016 that said Donald Trump's presidency would overall harm the economy.

Donald Trump’s presidency would “significantly” weaken the country, driving the U.S. into a “lengthy recession” with nearly 3.5 million job losses and a 7 percent unemployment rate, according to a Moody’s Analytics analysis released Monday.

The analysis examined the presumptive Republican presidential nominee’s economic plans at face value, based on interviews, speeches and his campaign website. The authors of the report, however, warned that quantifying the real estate mogul’s economic polices “is complicated by their lack of specificity.”

“Broadly, Mr. Trump’s economic proposals will result in a more isolated U.S. economy. Cross-border trade and immigration will be significantly diminished, and with less trade and immigration, foreign direct investment will also be reduced,” Mark Zandi, Chris Lafakis, Dan White and Adam Ozimek wrote in the report.

His policies would also diminish the country’s growth prospects, grow federal government deficits, increase the nation’s debt and finance his “mix of much lower tax revenues and few cuts in spending” with “substantially more government borrowing.”

“Driven largely by these factors, the economy will be significantly weaker if Mr. Trump’s economic proposals are adopted. Under the scenario in which all his stated policies become law in the manner proposed, the economy suffers a lengthy recession and is smaller at the end of his four-year term than when he took office,” the authors wrote. “By the end of his presidency, there are close to 3.5 million fewer jobs and the unemployment rate rises to as high as 7%, compared with below 5% today. During Mr. Trump’s presidency, the average American household’s after-inflation income will stagnate, and stock prices and real house values will decline.”

The report also determined that Trump’s plans would hit the middle class the hardest while high-income earners would benefit the most from his tax breaks.

From our vantage in 2022, we now know the above analysis is absolutely ass-backward from the reality: Trump radically improved the economy and made the middle class more robust. It's Biden who's destroying the country (and raping the middle class) with his utter stupidity. So Moody's has about the same forecasting ability as a leftie idiot like Nate Silver.

Question, then: do we trust Moody's when they say red states are doing better than blue states with economic recovery? Maybe yes, assuming Moody's learned its lesson after four years of Trump. Also maybe yes, assuming Moody's analysis conforms to common sense. But maybe no if we look at Moody's history of getting a phenomenon like Donald Trump majorly wrong.

What do you think? Do you trust Moody's?