Monday, June 02, 2025

a lot of gloom and doom from the left about tariffs

We have to go back to something I learned recently, which is that the usage of tariffs as a means of national income dates back to early in our country's history.* Now, everyone is saying that countries will refuse to do business with the US, that prices on imported goods will increase as countries slap retaliatory tariffs against us, and that all of this will militate against the economy. Meanwhile, over and over, the indications are that the tariff strategy is working. 

Latest example:

US Goods Trade Deficit Falls 46 Percent in April as Imports Decline
Early forecasts signal a spike in second-quarter GDP growth.

The U.S. goods trade deficit declined sharply in April from a record in March as the effects of front-running President Donald Trump’s tariffs faded.

According to an advance estimate from the Census Bureau, the goods trade gap plummeted 46 percent, to $87.6 billion, from the all-time high of $162.25 billion registered in March. This represented the smallest trade deficit for goods since December 2023.

While economists had anticipated a substantial slowdown, last month’s reading came in better than the consensus forecast of $141.5 billion.

Goods imports tumbled 19.8 percent, or $68.4 billion, to $276.1 billion. Exports of goods rose by 3.4 percent, or $6.3 billion, to $188.5 billion.

Advance retail and wholesale inventories were virtually unchanged at $803.5 billion and $906.9 billion, respectively.

Leading up to the president’s sweeping global tariff plans on April 2, companies had rushed to stockpile consumer goods to avoid the anticipated levies.

Declining imports are expected to bolster the GDP growth rate in the current quarter. Imports are subtracted from the GDP calculations because they measure the value of goods and services produced domestically.

Early forecasts suggest that the U.S. economy may experience a rebound in the second quarter.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely watched GDPNow Model points to a 3.7 percent expansion in the April–June period. This is up from the regional central bank’s 2.2 percent estimate prior to the publication of the goods trade deficit.

So hold fast, keep faith, and be still. Give this at least a year or two. Did Trump boast he'd right the national ship "on Day One"? He probably boasted something like that about a lot of things: ending the Ukraine-Russia war, ending wokeness, expelling illegals, etc. Did all of that happen on Day One? It didn't, in large part thanks to GOPe (neocon, Never Trump, etc.**) resistance. But is the ship of state beginning to right itself? If you're not ignoring the indications—from the border, from the economic measures, etc.—it is. Let's see how things are two years from now. And if you're going to write in with a criticism of Cheeto Hitler's economic plans, I want you to look me dead in the eye and seriously suggest that the Democrats—with all of their current insanity about race, immigration, crime, DEI, the environment, etc.—have a better plan. If they'd had a better plan, they could have implemented it during Biden's faux tenure. Why didn't they? Explain that, too, while you're at it.

__________

*This Sky News article affirms that tariffs have been around since at least the beginning of American history [and, I would guess, long before that]. The article also warns that Trump's tariff strategy could be a misuse of tariffs, and also that tariffs, from a certain perspective, have never brought in as much revenue as Trump seems to think they have. The article does not, however, go so far as to say that Trump's current strategy is a mistake—merely that it is dangerous. Well, I say that decades of bad economic policy on both sides of the aisle have left us with nothing but desperate alternatives. The article does mention, but fails to emphasize, that Trump's real purpose in levying painful tariffs is more of a negotiating tactic than solid economic policy. That sounds plausible to me, and Sky News—which is more left-leaning in written form and more right-leaning in video form—could have written more about that.

**The "e" in "GOPe" means establishment—the majority, do-nothing wing of the Grand Old Party, represented by Bush II, the Cheneys, Mitt Romney, Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski, John Bolton, etc. These are the war hawks, the neocons, the Never Trumpers, the back-room dealers and grifters who want the leprous status quo to continue. See my post from 2022 about how so many conservatives these days despise the GOPe Republicans.

ADDENDUM: more economic good news:

ADDENDUM 2: CNBC’s Rick Santelli Floored By How Much Trade Deficit Was Slashed In Wake Of Trump’s Tariffs


1 comment:

  1. Things are looking up...perhaps we elect some more MAGA Congress critters in 2026 and really move things forward.

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