Could it be that the signs of a collapse in China are so obvious, so undeniable, that it's really going to happen? I've already embedded several videos* that have focused on China's huge real-estate problem, but other economic indicators are also pointing to a system-wide collapse in China. Here's Instapundit, jumping on the China-collapse bandwagon. So this could really be happening, folks. For me, the equivalent would be to wake up one day to the news that the Lotte World Tower or the Washington Monument had just fallen over. There's always the chance that China will pull through its current crisis, just as it's done before—the country could really be "too big to fail." But from a Buddhist or Taoist perspective, everything eventually ceases to exist. Nothing is forever, so if it's China's time to collapse, then, well, it collapses. Such a fall will pull a lot of the world's economies down with it, but one way or another, I have faith that the majority of us will get through whatever is coming next.
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*These videos pretty much all predicted a collapse by late September, so check in on China again in a couple of weeks.
Man, I really hope not, cause that would suck big-time for us here. I have no idea what exactly that would do to the Korean economy, but it can't be anything good.
ReplyDeleteIf China fails, the replacement could be worse. Or maybe Xi will take the attitude that nothing matters anymore anyway, so let's do Taiwan.
ReplyDeleteThe repercussions of failure are what I fear.
Charles,
ReplyDeletePersonally, I'd rather have China sitting atop a legitimately strong economy. And while I'm engaging in fantasy, I'd also like for China not to be ruled by a repressive, genocidal regime. But people have been calling China's economy a "bubble" for years now, so maybe the bubble is finally popping. And despite China's genocidal nature, Western business interests keep stubbornly investing there (including Elon Musk, whom I would like better and take more seriously were he to leave China).
There's always the chance that news of China's collapse is as overblown as the doom-and-gloom surrounding Typhoon Hinnamnor. After all, if the Chinese economy does collapse, that doesn't mean China itself will just disappear. Those billion-plus people aren't going anywhere, so China will soldier on in some form. But I've seen so many predictions of the coming fall that I'm starting to be convinced that something real is going on.
As for how a Chinese collapse would affect Korea: you're right—China is Korea's largest trading partner, but I know there's a ton of Korean resentment toward China. It would be nice if America were South Korea's biggest trading partner, but the brute fact of China's largeness and geographical closeness to Korea makes China hard for Koreans to deny. (Plus, there's the whole vassal-state thing between China and Korea...) American products are inherently more expensive because of trans-Pacific shipping costs. Even so, I think a fuller partnership with the USA would be better for South Korea. But the reality is that Korea is tied to China by an umbilical, so if China goes down, it's gonna be devastating for the Korean economy.
John,
Yeah, who knows what a power vacuum might bring? You're probably right to fear whatever creature might step out of said vacuum.