Friday, March 04, 2016

la lógica mexicana

So I tweeted this:

It's very bizarre to hear that Mexican fears about Trump have prompted a *spike* in illegal immigration.

My buddy Mike responded with this:

I disagree. If you believe he could win & do what he says about a wall, it makes sense to try to get in now.

Makes sense, to some extent, in a "Buy NOW!" kind of way. But if you think more deeply about the matter, it really doesn't make sense at all. Consider:

1. Mexicans are now jumping the border because they assume Trump is going to be elected, and they know he's going to be a hardass about immigration.

2. Given this, Mexicans have to realize that, once they're in the US and Trump has used most of his first term to start building our very own Great Wall, things aren't going to go well for them, as Trump will mobilize forces to clear out as many illegals as he can, thereby making Michelle Malkin happy enough to tongue-fondle Ann Coulter's Adam's apple.

Basically, it's out of the frying pan and into the fire. The logic doesn't work, which is why I deem it illogic. But there may be a way to explain the illogic, so let's try to do that.

Theory 1: the Mexicans currently crossing the border because they fear that Trump will ape Brandon the Builder haven't thought the matter through. They're in "Buy NOW!" mode, and they haven't considered how shitty life is going to be once they're illegally Stateside.

Theory 2: the Mexicans now crossing the border are perfectly aware of the frying pan/fire nature of what they're doing, but they're gambling that the fire is better than the frying pan. That psychology might actually make some sense to me, but it's still based on a barely rational gamble: by now, news of what it's like to live in los Estados Unidos will have filtered south to families who are thinking of making the leap, and the news can't be good. Life for illegals is hard in the States, and many live in constant fear of la Migra. American streets aren't paved with gold; success isn't always the result of hard work, and justice isn't always a sure thing. (It also doesn't help matters when you arrive in the States and you're already a criminal, even if you are a fugitive from shitty conditions in your native land.) So why go there?

That's about as charitable as I can be when thinking through the illogic of the border-jumpers. I need to do more research to find out what's really going on at the border; it's obvious I don't have a damn clue. My Twitter conversation with Mike did include another exchange: I replied to Mike's disagreement—

The Mexican logic seems to be: D's gonna be prez, so cross over now, before there's a wall, then wait for D to kick us out.

Mike answered with (and I'll give him the last word):

Indeed. Plus, the economy has been growing (somewhat) and economic activity is also bringing them north.



The Maximum Leader said...

I think that it is important to remember that as hard as life can be on an illegal in the US, it still is an improvement over Mexico for those who will brave the journey.

Kevin Kim said...

So the fire is indeed better than the frying pan. But with Trump as president, the illegals have to know there's a much higher likelihood that they'll be found, rounded up, and tossed back south... unless their friends and relatives in el norte are sending back word that hiding from the American Migra is easier than one might expect. (In which case, shame on us.)

John from Daejeon said...

In the recent news, "The Christian Science Monitor" reports on 3/1, "Illegal immigration is actually rising now, thanks to Donald Trump.
Illegal immigration to the United States from Mexico is up 24 percent over last year. Some say Donald Trump's vow to build a wall is prompting the surge. With Mr. Trump's success in the Republican primaries, those considering migrating from Mexico or Central America may feel that it's now or never."

It doesn't helt that Mexico is a petro-state in serious decline with low oil prices and output leading to a free fall in the value of the peso (hovering around 18 pesos to the dollar). It has gotten so bad, that Mexico has denationalized the oil business and invited foreign oil investment back after living off oil revenues largely built by U.S. companies since President Lazaro Cardenas kicked them out in 1938.

This has led to things becoming increasingly dire in Texas, especially as unaccompanied minors, and Cubans (who basically become U.S. citizens once arriving on U.S. soil), are poring into the state, and now Harry Reid and Zoe Lofgren are sponsoring bills to have U.S. taxpayers pay for lawyers for all these undocumented children.

So, I can definitely see why Trump is resonating with so many these days when the likes of Reid and Hillary are determined to sell them out for the sake of millions more future democratic party votes while these poor people will live off the subsidies of taxpayers for the foreseeable future. But, I can't blame them as I wouldn't want to live south of the border with all the violent crime and corruption when I know that a decent, free education with 2 free meals a school day awaits just north of it, and the U.S. president isn't actively enforcing immigration law in an effort to bolster his party's numbers.