Friday, March 22, 2024

let's say you're right

A lot of people think there was no "steal" in 2020. For these people, hatred of Trump is enough to explain what happened. Biden was, for these haters, untested as president and thus glowing with potential, despite a nearly fifty-year record of being in Congress and doing jack shit, all while being caught in lie after lie (class rank, Corn Pop, jobs he'd supposedly had, plagiarism scandals, etc.). So if there was no steal, and 81 million people (not counting the dead, the illegals, the way-late absentee ballots, etc.) really did vote for Biden, this means half the country truly is stupid. If, on the other hand, there had been a steal in 2020—and there's plenty of evidence of shenanigans, from the sudden appearance of all-Biden 3 a.m. ballots to mass reports of duplicate signatures to polls where people blocked out the windows and sent the poll watchers home while votes continued to be counted—then maybe a large proportion of the population got hoodwinked, including left-liberals who would have changed their votes had they known earlier about, say, the Hunter Biden laptop scandal.

Let's suppose, though, for the sake of argument, that the There Was No Steal crowd is correct. If they're correct, then a couple things should be clear: (1) according to all the projections I'm seeing, including from statistician Nate Silver himself, Trump ought to win decisively this November. He's dominating battleground/swing states, and with RFK Jr. in the mix, the tide turns even more in his favor. (2) I'll be wrong, and the electoral process isn't as hopeless as it's been made out to be, which retroactively legitimizes Biden's 2020 "win." But I have a strong suspicion that, not only had there been a steal in 2020, but the left will do whatever it can to drag Biden's rotting corpse across the finish line this coming November. By hook or by crook, and undoubtedly by using new methods to perpetrate its shenanigans, Biden (or his possible replacement) will somehow contrive to undead-crawl back into the Oval Office. If I'm wrong (i.e., if Trump wins), I'm prepared to eat crow. I've done it before. But a Trump victory is not necessarily proof of election integrity. The whole process is compromised at this point, and the likelihood of greater and greater violence around Election Day is only increasing.

Back when I was an active elder in my church, we had monthly meetings of the Session (the assembly of active elders, about thirty of us). One bone of contention had to do with a group called Agape, which ministered to people with mental-health issues and had become, as some people put it, "a second congregation"—one that the church was trying to integrate more fully into regular church life. Some Agape members, though, were shy and socially awkward, so they preferred not to associate with the main congregation. A certain amount of pressure was building about this, and Agape was growing large enough to be a real budgetary concern, and most of the nasty fights we would have, in Session, had to do with money. (Of course.) Along with this was the question of whether to replace the current leader of Agape, our assistant pastor Sharon (not her real name). Some pro-Agape people protested that Agape would fall apart without Sharon because she was the driving force behind it, and Agape members were too fragile to handle that sort of radical change. This led me to a sociological insight: a community or group or organization is healthy if it can survive a transfer of leadership. Otherwise, if everything is so focused on one particular leader, what you have is closer to a cult. I privately told our moderator my thoughts, with the logical extension that, if Agape really is so dependent on its current leader, then it's not a "second congregation" at all: congregations survive changes in leadership. The moderator, without naming me, put my argument out there to the Session during one meeting, and one of our most bleeding-heart liberal members went apoplectic and looked as if he were about to attack the moderator for questioning Agape's "congregational" status. I was shocked at my liberal colleague's behavior (which, to my mind, basically proved an even deeper point: wrapping Agape in "congregation" language made it untouchable, undiscussable) and sent him an email afterward saying that the "not a real second congregation" idea was mine, and I explained how I'd reached that conclusion. I never got a reply; he never spoke to me directly about the issue. And life went on.

Sorry about that last part, which has nothing to do with my real point. My real point, in telling the above story, is this: now apply the logic of healthy groups/organizations to America. Are we still capable of peaceful transfers of power, or will we see mobs burning sections of cities, as we've seen in the past, if Trump wins a second term? How healthy is America by this standard? I don't like the answer I'm leaning toward.



8 comments:

  1. Yeah, sometimes I'm glad to be old, so I won't have to live through the coming doomsday. Can we hold out for twenty more years or so, please?

    Enjoyed the tale about your church leadership days, even though the outcome was a chilling premonition of what seems to be happening nationwide now.

    Trump needs to win so big that a steal is impossible. Can he do it? Time will tell. Honestly, I'm expecting some major preemptive strike (assassination?) when it becomes apparent that Trump's re-election is inevitable.

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  2. Just out of interest, what would it take to convince you that the 2020 election was legit? I know solid proof would convince me that it wasnt, but it's hard to prove something didnt happen.

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  3. Paul,

    My trust in the system is so broken that I honestly don't know what standard of proof I'd accept. Maybe a lack of post-election reports of widespread shenanigans would be a start although that wouldn't constitute proof per se. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence and all that. But not hearing reports of dead people voting, or duplicate signatures on mail-in ballots, etc. might be nice.

    The problem, as has been pointed out, is that all elections, especially large-scale ones, have some level of shenanigans. So you can never reach a point of zero attempts at cheating. This is, frankly, something I'd never thought about before. I had naively taken the electoral process for granted, and now that I'm alert to fraud, I've gotten paranoid.

    Upshot: I don't know. As you say, you can't prove a negative. But it may be possible to build a circumstantial case.

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  4. The thing that bothers me is that Trump and his surrogates make claims of fraud and repeatedly say they are going to release evidence proving their claims but so far, not a single shred of solid evidence. That despite the audit down in Arizona and various other investigations. It would serve Trump no purpose to sit on bombshell evidence, so by now, it's time for him to put up or shut up. And I find it difficult to believe that a conspiracy of this size could effectively be kept secret like this. Therefore, I'm inclined to say that the lack of evidence is more evidence of nothing than baseless claims are evidence of something.

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  5. Sorry, that was murky. Your question was about the 2020 election, but my answer was more about future elections. Let me try again.

    For 2020, there's nothing, at this point, that would convince me there were no shenanigans. Biden, when he bothered to appear in public, drew anemic crowds wherever he went, and he basically campaigned from his basement. This behavior has continued during his time in office, i.e., he works only a few hours a day and keeps his interactions with the press very brief. Trump in 2020, meanwhile, was filling stadiums at every campaign stop. Somehow, this translated to a country full of popular hatred for Trump and popular love for Biden? Sorry, but that doesn't add up.

    You had mentioned an argument you'd heard re: how it'd be impossible to perpetrate fraud on such a huge scale. I think this assumes the shenanigans were a coordinated action. I don't see things that way. Reports of odd happenings were coming in from all over the country, so what we were seeing was more of a "death by a thousand cuts" effect: not one coordinated steal, but hundreds of little actions that all added up, separate actions by like-minded people producing an aggregate effect. I've already listed many of those actions in previous posts, so I won't repeat them here, but the overall picture is that of a deeply unpopular Biden somehow managing to beat Donald Trump despite Biden's doing little to nothing.

    So it comes down to how one interprets the evidence, and more basically, what one considers evidence. People on the left basically roll their eyes and dismiss the cited shenanigans out of hand, not even bothering to consider them. And to be fair, people on the right dismiss leftist arguments. That leaves us at an impasse. The more I think about it, though, even if Trump wins in November, this probably isn't going to restore my trust in the system. And that's bad news for the country.

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  6. I wrote my second comment before I saw your second comment, but to reiterate: evidence is out there, but some people refuse to see it as evidence. A legal wall went up in 2020 every time Trump & Co. tried to present evidence of fraud, with vague terms like "no legal standing" being thrown up as a shield to keep the evidence from having a proper hearing. So it's not that there was "not one shred of evidence," but that the evidence was never given a fair chance to be considered.

    This is part of a larger trend that's been going on for years—what some people call "differential enforcement," i.e., unfair treatment. If a leftie Democrat does something wrong, he gets away with it. If a rightie Republican does the same thing, he gets nailed to the wall, especially by the media and the courts. If a Democrat has a grievance, the grievance gets a hearing. If a Republican has a grievance, the grievance is buried. We see this time and time again. The door only swings one way. This is why people are saying that, come November, Trump has no choice but to win big so as to "overcome the margin of fraud."

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  7. Kevin, your TDS (Trump Deification Syndrome) is showing. LOL I have yet to convinced that Republicans somehow have a moral superiority vs. Democrats when it comes to election fraud. Both sides have no morals and to intimate that somehow Democrats cheated in large numbers while Republicans were/are paragons of virtue is frankly, laughable. As @daeguowl said, "show me the evidence". 3+ years have passed and nothing credible has come up. REpublican appointed judges dismissed lawsuits, Republican state AG's did deep dives and came up empty, A computer expert was paid almost $1MM by President Trump to help disprove the election results, and he came up with nothing, etc etc etc

    Pre 2016 elections, what did the polls say? Hillary Clinton was shoo-in, etc. Did President Trump steal that election? How is it that someone so far behind in the polls, no experience in politics, economy doing well, etc etc etc win? Sounds like fraud to me!! (Joking - I believe he won legitimately, just as he lost legitimately in 2020).

    Interesting discussion, but tough to prove a negative if someone truly believes in something. Kind of like religion in a way, and the "cult" of Trump is a bit like religion for some people.

    Case in point - President Trump recently floated a 16 week federal ban on abortions. This would allow about 95% of all abortions that were done pre- repeal of Rowe vs Wade. It would be more liberal that what currently exists in Texas, Alabama, etc. Yet, these people are nodding their heads going, "Yeah, what Trump proposed sounds like a good idea. Federal ban is good."

    President Trump is a narcissistic populist. Prove me wrong. LOL

    Brian

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  8. Don't worry, Brian—I'm not ignoring you. But the answer to the multiple issues you raise will be a while in coming. Meantime, ponder this question: you seem to like to visit my blog to be a contrarian. I have a good idea of what you're against, but what are you for? Whom will you vote for in the coming election if you vote at all (and if you're not voting, why not?)? What's your solution to the country's most pressing ills, and which of those ills do you see as worth dealing with? Also: where do you sit on the political spectrum (or compass, or whatever)? It's time to show your cards. Right now, you're looking like a timid fence-sitter, a "moral-equivalencer" too afraid to commit to a position, but I don't believe that for a second. Someone as smart as you has had a long time to think through his positions and develop convictions. So spill it! What's important to you, and why?

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