Tuesday, November 08, 2016

buckle up

It's November 8 here in Korea, but as I write these words, it's still 10:30PM on November 7 along the United States' east coast. In other words, it's not election day quite yet, Poison Girls. I might be breaking my no-pre-election-posts promise, again, by writing this, but I'll keep this missive brief and just wish my country good luck. As I mentioned before, I'm sitting this election out: I don't want to be blamed for putting either Trump or Hillary into power. My contentious commenters have, thus far, been good enough to respect the voicing of my decision, and I thank them. For the rest of you: do what your conscience demands. Write in "George Washington's ghost" if you want.

I'll have a ton to say in 24 hours, by which time we'll probably know—barring a slew of disputes and recounts—which worldview has prevailed. One side or the other is about to learn a harsh lesson in terms of which doxastic practice is superior. The question, of course, is whether the losing side will actually internalize the lesson.

See you in 24 hours. Good luck, America.

UPDATE: Styxhexenhammer666's final prediction:

Is this realistic, or is Styx just a reality-denying Baghdad Bob? Meanwhile, Nate Silver's 538 is giving Hillary a 71% chance of winning the election, although as Styx has pointed out, Silver is hedging by saying Hillary is "one flipped state away" from losing. The RCP aggregate has leaped up in the past 48 hours, taking Hillary from a +1.6 margin to a full +3.0 margin over Trump. All of this means nothing if it's true that there are "shy Tories" who will vote Trump but not announce themselves in the polls, and if it's true that pro-GOP turnout will be massive compared to pro-Dem turnout.

UPDATE 2: my buddy Mike's long-ago election prediction. He gives it to Hillary in a near-landslide—about 67% of the electoral votes. According to Wikipedia, a landslide is traditionally about 75% or more of electoral votes. Historically, American landslides are more likely in the 85%-95% range. I still don't think Trump will win in a landslide, assuming he wins. Reagan got 97.6% of the electoral votes his second term.

No comments: