Vinay Prasad: "It Is Time to Face Reality About the Vaccines"

Article here. Crucial excerpt (which, admittedly, has some clarity problems):

...what is the conclusion? Two doses of vaccine [do] nothing or almost nothing to stop symptomatic [SARS-CoV-2]. Three doses barely [do] anything, and the effect will likely attenuate over time. Finally, as the number of exposures [increases] from 2 to 22 to 202, the cumulative probability of infection will approach 1.

NOTE: This is not an argument about the benefits of vaccination for the individual—vaccines likely (and evidence shows they) still have great protection against severe disease; instead[,] this is an argument about the effects of vaccination on symptomatic diseases, and (some good portion of) transmission.

Conclusion: you cannot contain the viral spread of omicron by boosting.

The moment we see that, the policy conclusions start to fall into place.

Booster mandates make no sense for young people/ working people/ hospitals/ anywhere. Young people will only be, at best, slightly less likely to spread for a short period of time, but the epidemic waves will eventually [overtake] them. Boosting should happen in populations where it further reduces severe disease and death—[i.e.,] older and vulnerable people. Focus on that and let college kids off the hook.

Some argue there is still a justification to boost because you can help prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Sadly, that argument fails in several ways. First, you have no evidence boosting younger people will slow hospitalizations. A vaccinated younger person already has very low risk of being hospitalized. Boosting may not further lower what is already very low. We simply have no evidence. Event rates are sparse at those ages.

Second, this argument would mean the state could tell people what to eat[,] how much to exercise, and how much to drink. Food, drink[,] and obesity are drivers of hospitalizations. Instead, we have not accepted these infringements in the past. The justification for vaccine mandates is that [they help] curb population spread. The latest [vaccine-effectiveness] figures show that effect is now nearly gone, and transient at best. Ergo, the mandates are unjustified.

Firing nurses and other [health-care] workers for being non-compliant with mandates is now [self-]defeating. We are better off having them work. Time to bring them back.

Draconian avoidance of omicron is not tenable. Omicron or a future variant will eventually find us all. It may even be preferable to encounter omicron a few weeks or months after your last vaccine than a year or two later, as the infection may be milder. As I explain in a prior post, wearing an n95 makes no sense.

It is time to face reality.

I've had wild-eyed, breathless, hysterical commenters tell me I'm some sort of denialist because of "overwhelmed hospitals," but there's reason to view that supposed overwhelming with skepticism. Remember, too, that many places claiming to be overwhelmed had initially rejected aid when Trump offered it, e.g. a hospital ship or two for New York City, completely unused. Why? Because Trump offered the help. People are stupid, and they dig their own graves, and I have no sympathy to spare for idiots.