how does JD Vance change the electoral picture?

Gold Crown Politics has an opinion:

I'm worried about what the non-selection of Byron Donalds will do to the black vote. Trump met with a black crowd at one point; Donalds was with him, and Trump asked the crowd something like, "Would you like to see this guy on the ticket?" to roars of approval. Dangling Donalds in front of the crowd, then turning around and not following through, could produce a ripple of disappointment and maybe even mistrust among black voters, who are already wary of promises not kept by the Democrats (even though they vote faithfully for the Dems again and again, with some black folks beginning to wake up in recent years—see the hundreds of #WalkAway vids on YouTube).

I hope I'm wrong. JD Vance doesn't seem to be a bad guy: of the three so-called "finalists" for the VP spot (Burgum and Rubio being the other two), Vance is easily the best pick. I'm convinced of that now. And Vance is an adult convert to Catholicism, so his selection isn't the typical sop to the theocratic right, which is mostly Protestant in character. I'm starting to have hopes for Vance, who is fast on his feet intellectually (watch videos of him sparring with leftie reporters and their gotcha questions). He doesn't have the charisma of a Vivek Ramaswamy or a Byron Donalds, but he brings his lawyer's training in argumentation, his intellectual candlepower, and a working-class background that—the pundits say—will appeal to Rust Belt voters, whom Trump needs to secure an electoral victory beyond the margin of fraud.

Still, I'm worried about what happens to the black vote.