Monday, November 02, 2020

Styx predix


Styx's official election prediction:  75-80% chance of a Trump victory.  Reasons?  The enthusiasm gap:  Trump voters are fired up; Biden voters aren't, as can be seen by the respective rally attendance for each candidate.  GOP voter registrations have been outpacing Dem registrations, and if the in-person voter turnout is any reflection of this enthusiasm, Trump has it in the bag.  Also:  Styx contends the polls are wrong, as they're showing much the same sampling bias they showed in 2016.  Election tampering by the left could swing the election for Biden, but this seems unlikely:  the "margin of fraud" just isn't wide enough.

With the recent daylight-savings changeover in the US, the Seoul-DC time gap is back to fourteen hours, which means we here in Korea won't know the election results until Wednesday morning, and even then, there'll be the delay caused by mail-in fraud voting, plus whatever litigation erupts once the election results are mostly known.  Don't expect the left to take a Trump victory stoically or civilly; expect more violence, property damage, and destroyed livelihoods.  If Biden wins, expect sadness and resentment from the right, plus fake-news reports of rightie violence across the nation.




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