Ructions in China as protests flare up in thirteen cities. Some commentators are calling this the most serious flareup since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.
We've been here before, of course, and in two senses: (1) I was recently captivated—and hoodwinked—by the optimistic notion that China might be undergoing a real-estate crisis that would collapse its economy. Cooler heads in the comments section advised me not to get excited, and sure enough, months after the predictions of doom, China is still chugging along with no zombie apocalypse in sight. Maybe there is a real-estate crisis in progress, but the battleship presses on, even if it's in flames, and I won't be bamboozled again. And then there's (2), the argument from history: it's a simple enough question to ask—so how did Tiananmen turn out? Is China now a paradise of human rights, or is it, more than ever, a North Korean-style surveillance state where only the yes-men, the party apparatchiks, are happy? Since we all know the answer to that question, the followup question should obviously be: why should we think that the current flareup will end any differently? I wrote this over at Instapundit:
We love rebels and the underdog, but it's good to remember not to map our hero-mythology onto other cultures. While I'd love to see China's authoritarian regime collapse, all I have to do is look at North Korea to realize that, in some places, the people never become brave enough to rise up against authority, and when they show signs of bravery, the authority will raise its boot and crush whatever spirit it finds. Then there's the question of what might arise after a collapse happens. The Chinese, as a whole, haven't shown a love of independence. They're a people looking for a strong guiding hand, a nanny state. The CCP sucks, to be sure, but what monster waits to replace it?
You might counter that Romania rose up and took care of the Ceaușescus, but again, Eastern Europe is not the Far East. Sure, I'll hope for a real collapse in China like the rest of you, but realistically, I don't see this ending well for the current protestors.
And that's about where things stand. The video below wants to argue otherwise:
TL;DR: hopeful but extremely skeptical. I see citizens being rounded up and shot long before I see China going down in flames.
I don't want to see China go down in flames. I just want to see Xi go down in flames. Change isn't going to happen overnight, but it does need to start with getting rid of Xi.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see Xi go down, too, but as the channel China Uncensored constantly warns, the real problem is having the CCP still in power. The CCP has a whole supply of Xi-like leaders waiting to step up should Xi fall.
ReplyDelete