Monday, February 05, 2024

congrats, I think

Headline:

Nayib Bukele Reelected President of El Salvador in Landslide Victory

Nayib Bukele has been reelected president of El Salvador in a predicted landslide victory. Prior to the election, polls indicated he had a 90 percent approval rating with the citizenry of his country. Early exit polling bore that out, seeing him take 87 percent of the national vote.

His tough-on-crime administration, featuring the declaration of a state of emergency to imprison MS-13 gang members without court approval, has gained him the love of a people fatigued by chaos—as well as the scorn of humanitarian watchdog groups. As of 2015, El Salvador was considered “the homicide capital of the world,” experiencing one murder every hour and surpassing war-torn Iraq in violence. Now, it is one of if not the safest country in the western hemisphere: by imprisoning just 1 percent of the population, he has reduced homicides by 70 percent.

He is the first Salvadoran leader in nearly 100 years to get reelected. The current constitution forbids presidents from seeking reelection, but Bukele has rejected this precept on the grounds that all developed countries permit second terms.

The part-Palestinian son of a businessman beat candidates from five different political parties, including two from the parties that reigned over the country for 30 years until his first victory in 2019: the leftist guerilla army-turned-political party Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) and the right-of-center Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA).

While the 42-year-old appears as a hip young charmer to some, having made Bitcoin legal tender and having invested heavily in the technological capabilities (robots, arts, etc.) of libraries for the youth, his criminal justice tactics have also incurred the disapproval of several human rights groups and some progressive members of US Congress.

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) and several other Democratic US lawmakers  called on Secretary of State Antony Blinken to intervene in the Salvadoran election, claiming that Bukele has violated democratic norms by seeking re-election and by allegedly jailing political opponents. Media outlets financed by billionaire megadonor George Soros have also accused Bukele of political malfeasance. Bukele has scoffed off these claims, writing back that he welcomes their condemnations as badges of honor. 

Oh, noes! Soft-on-crime US progressives don't like the man! What a surprise! I do get more than a whiff of shenanigans about this whole election, but if Bukele is doing such a good job of eliminating crime, that can only be a plus. That said, he's going to have to balance his strongman authoritarianism with solid economic policies. The larger problem is that the health of any group of people can be seen during changes of leadership. The US was doing well under Trump, but it's been collapsing precipitously under Biden, which means the country's core isn't strong if it can't survive a change in leadership. This law of human nature will apply even more strongly to Bukele. If his mere presence is the glue holding the country together, then what happens to the country when he leaves? This site suggests that Bukele might not leave for a while: he might pull a Xi Jinping and try to stay in power as long as he can, and he's young; he could linger for decades. Die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain. In the end, the US progressives might turn out to be right after all.

If the man stays. Buena suerte, El Salvador.



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