Friday, November 05, 2004

Joel on Israel and Iran

Joel writes:

Kevin -

I don't think my Israel theory is entirely without evidence. In fact it's probably one of my better conspiracy theories. This summer Israel made its intention to purchase 500 "bunker buster" bombs from the US for around $300 million. From its own reports these are not bombs intended for Palestinians, but for foreign threats like Iran and Syria. Although this would simply be an addition to their "bunker buster" arsenal as they have their own manufacturing program, it goes to show them we support their action all the while Powell and the director of the CIA are saying the opposite. In turn doing what they must to distance us from the action publicly.

Of course Iran has warned Israel and rattled the sabers in response promising unconditional retaliation; unfortunately unconditional retaliation for countries like Iran includes civilian targets. So while Israel would receive censure for violating international law like they did when they bombed Iraq's nuclear facilities in 1981 no one would really care. It would be kind of like Kofi Annan saying the US violated international law in its invasion of Iraq. No one batted an eye.

But in contrast, missile attacks against soft targets in Israel would cause international uproar and very possibly bring a larger coalition together to deal with the threat. Nothing could be better for the US in looking to change the regime in Iran. However, I think an occupation force in Iran would have a much harder time of it than they are currently having in Iraq. But that's another discussion all together.

As for the US performing air strikes directly, I don't know. I doubt it. Check that, I hope not. Because destroying a nuclear facility is one thing, but in a day when terrorism is so prevalent and hatred for the US runs as strong as it does doing it directly is only a greater invitation for more attacks. Because destroying Iranian terror cells that spring up in response with cruise missiles and air strikes just isn't practical. The cruise missile attacks against cells in Afghanistan after the embassy bombings in Africa didn't prevent 9/11 and there should be no delusions strikes against Iran will not stop something possibly worse.


Lee at Verbum Ipsum quotes from an article that largely agrees with Joel. Something for me to chew over. I admit that it makes sense for Bush to play nicer this round. He needs to rebuild American legitimacy as much as possible.


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