Saturday, March 15, 2025

that can't be good news

Headline (from the right-leaning Epoch Times—paywalled):

Consumer Confidence Tumbles as Inflation Expectations Jump
Americans grew uneasy about the economy in February as inflation expectations surged and consumer sentiment took its steepest dive in over two years.

Confidence among American consumers fell sharply in February, hitting a 29-month low, while long-run inflation expectations recorded their biggest monthly jump in 32 years, according to the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

The data suggest that U.S. households are bracing for some uncertainty—possibly turbulence—which the Trump administration insists will be a short-lived “detox” period as tariffs and other policies take effect, and as government spending shifts to the private sector.

The University of Michigan’s closely watched consumer confidence survey, released on March 14, showed sentiment plunging 11 percent last month to a preliminary reading of 57.9, down from 64.7 in January and the lowest level since November 2022. The index has now dropped 22 percent since December, when post-election enthusiasm over President Donald Trump’s pro-business policies sent confidence soaring.

Inflation expectations are also rising. Long-run inflation projections climbed from 3.5 percent in January to 3.9 percent in February—the largest month-over-month increase since 1993. Short-term expectations rose as well, with year-ahead inflation forecasts jumping from 4.3 percent to 4.9 percent, marking the highest reading in 29 months and the third consecutive month of significant increases.

Despite these declines, the data suggest consumers are more concerned about the future than the present, as job market conditions and broader economic indicators remain relatively strong.

Trump has dismissed concerns about a downturn. He told reporters on March 11 that he does not believe a recession is coming “at all” and said that the country is “going to boom.”

I hope for his sake that he's right, but even some Trump-supporting conservatives are predicting that the US is headed for a Bidenomics-fueled recession, a boulder put in motion by the senile git and now unstoppable. But we'll see. Egg prices are already going down—a positive indicator. That said, people won't wait forever, and the masses, notoriously, are both stupid and fickle. By the same token, people won't wait for Attorney General Pam Bondi to produce real, tangible results in the form of actual Epstein documents and real arrests of prominent people. Thus far, the AG's office has produced nothing but rhetoric. It's embarrassing. As Asmongold said regarding Bondi's big promises in a recent video: "I'll believe it when I see it." (Trump also needs to work on turning his executive orders into laws. Otherwise, his changes will be undone by the next Democrat in the Oval Office.)


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