Tuesday, October 17, 2006


More experts are leaning toward the conclusion that North Korea's recent test did in fact involve a nuclear weapon that probably had a yield of less than one kiloton, and there appears to be evidence that NK is setting up a second test.

A coworker of mine was spooked by the drills yesterday and told me he's planned his escape route in the event of a war: he'll motor south as far as his bike will take him, then keep right on going. "Back roads, not the freeway," he said.

And that's where the horde will be heading: south. As soon as the fighting starts, Seoul will choke on its own traffic as people climb over each other to flee the city amid the shelling. If experience is any guide, I'd venture they won't get far in vehicles. I was in Washington, DC when the 9/11 attacks occurred, and I remember that DC had nothing in the way of modern evacuation plans: the most recent plans dated back to the 1970s. On September 11, 2001, the city experienced immediate gridlock; had the situation not been so tense, it might almost have been funny. Multiply the DC snafu by several hundred and that's what Seoul will be like in the first few hours of a new war.


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