538

There's really little reason to trust the 538 website (fivethirtyeight.com), given how Nate Silver and his website went simultaneously stupid and insane in 2016 (remember how they predicted a Hillary victory right up until the night before the election?), but a commenter on Instapundit linked to this post-debate survey on the site, which might or might not be worth a gander. Here are some "key highlights" from the linked PDF:

Republican voters think two candidates performed best.

● 29% of Americans watched the debate, with 15% watching all of it and 15% watching some, but not all. 36% of those who will vote Republican in 2024 watched the debate. 

● Among Republican voters who watched the debate, 23% say Ramaswamy won it, while 21% say DeSantis was the winner. Pence came in third place, at 11%. 

Trump's presence was felt, despite his absence.

● 45% of Americans agree with Trump’s decision to boycott the first Republican debate. 

● Most (61%) Republican voters would like to see Trump as the Republican candidate for the 2024 election, with Ron DeSantis coming in at a distant second, as the preferred candidate of 9% of Republican voters. 

● If a presidential election were held today, Trump would perform well in a head-to-head race against President Biden. Among decided voters, Trump would receive 44% of the popular vote, while Biden would receive 41%, and 15% of voters would choose someone else.

Plenty of graphs and pretty statistics at the link. I don't know if it's worth much, but it's at least distracting. Ramaswamy is officially on the map after campaigning like a dervish and interviewing everywhere like a madman. His appeal will largely be to younger conservatives, but I think he's gaining some name recognition now. Older folks, especially if they're conservative Christians, seem not to like him, and I've now seen all manner of stupid accusations levied against him—accusations based on nothing. One person, for example, claimed Ramaswamy was an isolationist (huh?), but how is that possible if he's for reviving the Trans-Pacific Partnership deals as a way to contain China? So there's obviously a lot of ignorance out there. And of course, the conservative Christians can't get past the idea of a Hindu as US president. Sometimes, the left is correct in its accusations of rightie bigotry. With Trump so far ahead in all the important metrics, though, Ramaswamy doesn't have a prayer. Barring a heart attack or stroke, Trump will likely be the GOP nominee for 2024.